Champions Meeting · Guide
LONG
~Jul 31, 2027 → ~Aug 6, 2027Nakayama · 2500 m · Long · Turf · Right-handed
Summary
- A 50-race pre-event sample on 19 Dec 2024 is polluted by three tester horses, who took 22 of 50 firsts. Non-tester firsts: Front Runner 13, Late Surger 9, End Closer 5, Pace Chaser 1.
- Inside those 13 front firsts: Halloween Mayano 7, Christmas Palmer 4, a new Kitasan Black outfit 2. The sample itself says not to rank styles firmly.
- Among the 13 front winners: Taking the Lead 13, Groundwork 12, an inherited cheer acceleration 10. Forecast line about 1750/1500/1300/1100/1200 plus a gold recovery.
- In the 19 Dec sample, new Grass Wonder had 23 adoptions and 4 wins, all non-tester and all Late Surger. Valentine Manhattan Cafe had 8 adoptions and 3 wins, all non-tester and End Closer. An earlier sample on 3-4 Dec, before that Grass Wonder: Front Runner 17 firsts, Late Surger 14 (11 tester), End Closer 13 (10 tester), Pace Chaser 6 (1 tester). Rooms in that earlier sample without 2 or more Front Runners were 10 of 50. Do not average the two weeks.
Guides: Runaway + two Front; back-runner alternatives with no measured absolute order.
Running styles
Styles the guides favor: Front RunnerLate SurgerEnd Closer
Use is the share of rival Umas that ran each style in Japan: how popular it was, not how often it won.
Result: wins or first places in room matches set up in Japan with this CM's conditions. Small samples, not Global and not a win rate in the real event.
| Style | Verdict | Use in Japan | Result in JP rooms | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Front Runner | Best | not counted | 26 %of room first places (test accounts included) | Measured 13 of 50 firsts and none were testers. That is the cleanest row, and the sample still refuses a firm ranking. Sample: 50 pre-event Graded final rooms, 19 Dec: 13 firsts, 0 testers, Runaway counted inside Front |
| Runaway | Strong | not counted | — | Measured Runaway was counted inside Front. Christmas Palmer took 4 of those 13. Sample: Christmas Palmer 4 of the 13 front firsts; not a separate style row |
| Pace Chaser | Weak | not counted | 10 %of room first places (test accounts included) | Measured 5 of 50, and 4 were the tester Gentildonna. One non-tester Pace first. Sample: 50 pre-event Graded final rooms: 5 firsts, 4 testers |
| Late Surger | Strong | not counted | 36 %of room first places (test accounts included) | Measured 18 of 50, half testers. Non-tester Late firsts were 9, second to the front row. Sample: 50 pre-event Graded final rooms: 18 firsts, 9 testers |
| End Closer | Viable | not counted | 28 %of room first places (test accounts included) | Measured 14 of 50, 9 testers. Five non-tester closer firsts. Sample: 50 pre-event Graded final rooms: 14 firsts, 9 testers |
Expected room
Front Runners per room: no source counted them. Runaways per room: no source counted them. From guides
No source counted Front Runners in a full room of 9. The figures in the style table are one graded window or a pre-event Room Match sample, not a server census.
Umas
What Japan used and what the guides recommend, one card per outfit. A recommendation is a guide author's priority, not a chance of winning.
In Japan: 7 non-tester firsts in the 19 Dec sample, the most of any non-tester. The Global roster has Scramble Zone and Sunlight Bouquet. This id is not those cards. Measured
In Japan: 4 of the 13 front firsts, as Runaway. The Global Palmer is Line Breakthrough (106401). Measured
In Japan: 2 of the 13 front firsts. The Global Kitasan is Gilded Shrine to Glory (106801). This id is the later outfit. Measured
- Sakura Laurel1st outfitLate SurgerAlternativeNot in Global yet
In Japan: A tester in this sample, so her wins are not used as the field. Still the Late Surger name on the pre-event pages. Not in the planner roster. From guides
- Mayano Top GunハロウィンFront RunnerMain pick
Guides:Front Runner: Observed front-side ace
- High build quality with a tractor
- Validate availability and version in Global
This outfit is not in the game data yet.
- Mejiro PalmerクリスマスRunawayConditional
Guides:Runaway: Tractor with its own potential
- Don't read all the points as Front
- Validate availability and version in Global
This outfit is not in the game data yet.
- Kitasan Blacknew 2024 outfitFront RunnerAlternative
Guides:Front Runner: Strong front-side runner
- Verify the exact outfit identity
- Validate availability and version in Global
This outfit is not in the game data yet.
- Grass Wondernew 2024 outfitLate SurgerAlternative
Guides:Late Surger: New kit suited to the course
- Released during the preparation window
- Validate availability and version in Global
This outfit is not in the game data yet.
- Dream JourneyoriginalEnd CloserAlternative
Guides:End Closer: Viable End route
- Only two rival winners in the sample
- Validate availability and version in Global
This character is not in the game data yet.
Stats and aptitudes
| Target |  Speed |  Stamina |  Power |  Guts |  Wit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recommended | 1750 | 1500 | 1300 | 1100 | 1200 |
| Minimum | 1600 | 901 | 1200 | 901 | 1000 |
Stamina with a gold recovery skill: 1500.Without one: 1700.
Aptitudes: Long distance. Stamina and guts at least 901 for the track correction.
From guides Forecast, not the tester-heavy averages. One guide line is 1750/1500/1300/1100/1200 plus a gold or a 3.5% heal. A harder line is 1750/1700/1400/1100/1200. Front winners in the sample, n=13 and none testers, averaged 1771/1665/1428/1103/1250.
Check your own build in the HP Calculator before training: these targets come from Japanese guides.
Skills
Inherited uniques 1
- Victory Cheer!Front RunnerOn 10 of those 13 front winners.
Gold skills 4
- Taking the LeadFront RunnerRunawayOn all 13 front winners in the 19 Dec sample.
- GroundworkFront RunnerRunawayOn 12 of those 13 front winners.
- Encroaching ShadowEnd CloserEnd Closer acceleration on this long course.
- Front-runner gold accelerationFront RunnerNot in Global yetA Front Runner gold acceleration the guides list as the fastest here. The Global catalog has no English title for it, so this row does not invent one.
Green skills 6
- Right-Handed ○Front RunnerRunawayPace ChaserLate SurgerEnd CloserCourse green (+40 Speed).
- Nakayama Racecourse ○Front RunnerRunawayPace ChaserLate SurgerEnd CloserCourse green (+40 Stamina).
- Non-Standard Distance ○Front RunnerRunawayPace ChaserLate SurgerEnd CloserCourse green (+40 Stamina).
- Wet Conditions ○Front RunnerRunawayPace ChaserLate SurgerEnd CloserCourse green (+40 Power).
- Winter Runner ○Front RunnerRunawayPace ChaserLate SurgerEnd CloserCourse green (+40 Speed).
- Cloudy Days ○Front RunnerRunawayPace ChaserLate SurgerEnd CloserCourse green (+40 Guts).
Team compositions
Halloween Mayano (Front Runner) + Christmas Palmer (Runaway) + new Kitasan Black (Front Runner)
From guides The three non-tester names inside the 13 front firsts. A guide shape, and also what that slice actually won with.
2 × Front Runner + 1 × Runaway
From guides The three non-tester names inside the 13 front firsts. A guide shape, and also what that slice actually won with.
Debuffers
Depends on the room Legal. Early in the sample, back aces with two debuffers were seen and the front row was still ahead. No debuff win rate.
Support decks
Decks published by guides for this CM in Japan. Some cards may not be in Global yet; the planner checks which ones you can use.
Deck shapes
- 2 Speed / 2 Stamina / 1 Power / 1 Wit · Late Surger · JP · Mecha · umamusumelabo.com
Guides in other languages
Korean · player results · 2026-04-17 · inven.co.kr
- Mejiro Palmer (christmas) · Runaway · Observed team
- Mayano Top Gun (halloween) · Front Runner · Observed team
- Kitasan Black (red) · Front Runner · Observed team
Personal campaign; not population.
Same account in all these reports; composition and rivals not controlled.
Chinese · author guide · 2024-12-08 · vocus.cc
- Kitasan Black (red) · Front Runner · Strong
- Mayano Top Gun (halloween) · Front Runner · Strong
- Mejiro Palmer (christmas) · Runaway · Strong
Typos in condition 重 and name HalloweenPalmer; hold in reserve.
No census; historical JP recommendation.
Measured data
Counts as their sources give them, each with its own sample. Win counts come from room matches or single accounts in Japan: small samples, not Global and not a win rate.
| What was counted | Count | Sample and limits |
|---|---|---|
| Team round wins JP sample | 27 / 40 races (67.5 %) | Round 1, this account inven.co.kr |
| Team round wins JP sample | 23 / 40 races (57.5 %) | Round 2, this account inven.co.kr |
| Wins of one player's Uma JP sample | 14 / 81 races (17.3 %) | Mejiro Palmer, outfit=christmas, R1+R2+final inven.co.kr |
| Wins of one player's Uma JP sample | 20 / 81 races (24.7 %) | Mayano Top Gun, outfit=halloween, R1+R2+final inven.co.kr |
| Wins of one player's Uma JP sample | 17 / 81 races (21 %) | Kitasan Black, outfit=red, R1+R2+final inven.co.kr |
What may differ in Global
- Testers took 22 of 50 firsts. Do not read the raw style table as the field.
- A Chinese-language note of this week writes Soft. Japanese pages say Good. Use Good.
- The fastest Front Runner gold has no Global English title in the catalog.
Gaps in the data
- Post-event population: not found.
- The article path uses the id from the research extract.
Sources and credits
This guide is our own summary, in our words, of the research below; the findings belong to their authors. Follow the links to read them in full.
- CM history Sppenpen · guide · 2024-12-22 · Japanese
- 50-room sample, 19 Dec Famitsu · data · 2024-12-20 · Japanese50 races
- Course forecast Uma Musume Lab · guide · 2024-11-06 · Japanese
- 50-room sample, 3-4 Dec Famitsu · data · 2024-12-04 · Japanese50 races
Guides cited
- umamusumelabo.com https://umamusumelabo.com/ikusei/chanmi-long-sasiikusei-202412
- inven.co.kr https://www.inven.co.kr/board/uma/5850/31770
- vocus.cc https://vocus.cc/article/6753c7b7fd8978000162f8de